Unfortunatley, I think that real figures are a lot higher than those we can read about. Millions are infected all around the world, but they (governments) can't tell because of the panic and the economic implications that such news could have on our lives.
Lower figures means they could, in a not so long time, claim the epidemic is almost over and we could go back to our jobs and daily activities. Yes, many others will die (and recover) but it will go unnnoticed, classified as any other common death cause as it was before the crisis.
Another point is that actual figures are not comparable between nations. Anyone has its own method of classification. There's who count positives only among those hospitalized, who counts the positive tests conducted here and there (e.g. among healthcare personnel only or among people still at work or among people showing clear sympthoms..). A more homogeneous counting could be offered by the ratio between analyzed swabs and positives, but even that index could be altered by several factors:
- who you take the swab to (heathcare staff is more likely to be positive than someone locked home since weeks)
- if the swab comes from a never tested before person or it is a repetition
- if the swab comes from an isolated rural area or a big town
- ....
Personally I look at the figures as an alarm about a risk. Even before covid we knew that leaving home we could meet a criminal, someone rude and aggressive, someone not respecting basic hygienic rules or even sick and infectious. Now we know the risk level is higher.