I would do it like this:
View attachment 52683
It uses 3 panels and 3 canvases.
One for the reference diagram.
One for real dynamic temperature diagram
One for the dot.
A click on the control button starts a new sequence.
A Timer generates the time steps and a temperature close to the red one with a random error.
Advantage no external library, complete control of the code and customizable to your needs.
This is a skeleton, based on your diagram, up to you to adapt it to your needs.
It can be improved to make it more universal.